Ecological Forecasting

The SERVIR project is a regional visualization and monitoring system for Mesoamerica located in the Republic of Panama that integrates satellite and other geospatial data for improved scientific knowledge and decision-making. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and USRA, with other partners, manage a testbed and rapid prototyping SERVIR facility at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC). USRA researchers are prototyping an array of decision support products for use by governments and nongovernmental organizations throughout Central America. Using NASA data assets, team members develop customized maps, 3-D visualizations, and executive summaries relevant to local environmental conditions, weather, climate, and natural disasters. In parallel with these activities, project members performed climate model simulations for the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, examining temperature and rainfall changes stemming from the conversion of rainforest to agriculture and urbanization. USRA researchers create and deliver (via frequent seminars and workshops throughout Central America) a range of educational materials such as training documents, localized demonstration datasets, and data visualization tools. USRA is also working with NASA and international partners to expand the SERVIR concept into Mexico, Africa, and Asia.

Energy Management

USRA scientists are working on a NASA Rapid Prototyping Capability project to evaluate impacts of both local-scale urbanization induced and global-scale climate change on electrical power consumption for three U.S. cities representing different climate regimes. This team will use projections of regional temperature change and interannual variability to improve inputs into the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). USRA is enhancing the functionality of NEMS by adding the capability to incorporate changes in climate (temperature) associated with global change as well as urbanization, utilizing the Prescott Spatial Growth Model (PSGM) to more accurately project future energy use for simulated future climates. Model simulations are used to estimate expected mean heating- and cooling-degree days (HDD/CDD) for the future (2030) climate. Future work will involve additional U.S. cities, 50-year climate projections, or use of ensemble climate-model output.

Data Assimilation and Modeling

USRA researchers are contributing to NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center which seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS (National Weather Service) forecast operations and decision-making at the regional and local level. USRA has worked to develop methods of storm electrification and lightning threat forecasting using proxy fields from high resolution WRF simulations. USRA researchers are expanding this effort to include additional simulations of new case studies, exploration of the use of WRF mini-ensembles as a means of creating probabilistic forecasts of quantitative lightning threat fields, and use of other WRF configurations featuring diverse choices of model physics parameterizations to examine uncertainties in the calibration factors used to convert proxy fields to lightning threat. USRA staff are collaborating with NASA and UAH scientists to perform supporting "ground-truth" analyses of the temporal and spatial patterns in total and cloud-to-ground lightning in storms observed by the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) which could help provide NWS forecasters with new tools with which to anticipate severe weather.

Lightning Studies

Lightning observations from space and from ground-based networks contribute to improvements in predictive capability for weather and extreme weather events. Software developed by USRA and NASA scientists creates a merged dataset from several lightning sensors covering the past five years. This dataset is being used as a proxy for the Risk Reduction effort for the new Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-Series R (GOES-R) Lightning Mapper.